Rethinking subscriber growth; AI as the publisher’s edge

As media marketers, we have trained our audience that there will always be a sale, they shouldn't pay full price, and most likely the sale will be $1 for six months. We’ve become bargain basement retailers. AI allows us to rethink our approach.”

Imtiaz Patel, a media executive who has led growth, digital innovation and revenue strategy across major news organizations

I believe AI can help publishers perform at scale. Rather than fear the risks associated with AI, how can we embrace it for the opportunities it presents? In this column, I aim to focus on specific actions publishers must take to change their approach to interacting with consumers, thereby driving subscribers and increasing average revenue per user (ARPU).

We have an over-reliance on acquisition spend to drive starts; however, the customer acquisition costs (CAC) are often dubious due to difficult attribution. For my CFO friends, perhaps we should be spending a lot less money on acquisitions and instead doing a better job of converting onsite traffic into subscribers. Could we even reduce spending and increase revenue?

As media marketers, we have trained our audience that there will always be a sale, they shouldn't pay full price, and most likely the sale will be $1 for six months. We’ve become bargain basement retailers.  

AI allows us to rethink our approach. Instead of spending on traffic offsite, how about we improve conversion onsite? Consider this: they are on our site, are there for a reason and have an interest in our content. They may be the best prospects.

We can’t completely give up on offsite marketing; we must build an ongoing audience and expose our content to new audiences. AI- and machine learning-based (ML) media mix optimization models could, in real-time, determine spend allocations based on goals, and in an agentic future, they could even execute optimal buys.

In terms of converting users onsite, AI-based dynamic paywalls are the solution. These have been around for some time now, and with enhanced AI algorithms, we can expect to see better returns. By matching intent to purchase and content type, the dynamic paywall can decide on who is most likely to convert and who isn’t.

While AI tools will continue to improve, the role of marketing organizations working with editorial teams must be to focus on increasing purchase intent. The key is to expose prospects to content they want. Personalization here is the key. A hyper-personalized newsletter for me based on my interests?

On promotional pricing, we need to get away from one-size-fits-all. If intent is there, we may not even need a promotional price. And if someone is on the fence, a promotional price may tilt them toward a subscription. Here again, understanding intent would allow us to deploy AI tools for dynamic pricing at acquisition. We can always gear the dynamic pricing tool to be more or less promotional, based on our need to drive short-term starts.

A mindset shift we need to make is to think of an initial subscription as a trial and the first renewal as a true subscription. While on trial, you are deciding whether an ongoing relationship provides enough value to continue. This is when the publisher needs to do everything to drive engagement. And while all publishers have an onboarding journey, it’s static and doesn’t really focus on gathering data on the subscriber. The onboarding journey should be focused on collecting data to allow personalization of what they get and see. The tech already exists to personalize the site experience (think Netflix). The enhanced engagement associated with a personalized experience will drive frequency of visit — the key determinant of retention.

Subscriber behavior needs to be understood at an individual level, such as how frequently someone visits, what they read, what drives higher engagement, etc. Changes in behavior, which may indicate risk of attrition, should be immediately dealt with through trigger-based campaigns, enabled by AI. The role of the marketer would be to develop campaigns that AI can deploy, and ML can improve upon. This should be executed across all channels, including the site experience, which can be modified in real time to push engagement.

When it comes to renewal, we need to move away from fixed prices to prices that reflect value. The current process is more akin to a Dutch auction, rather than rational pricing. AI can determine a dynamic price to offer to retain a subscriber while optimizing for ARPU and subscriber volume.

None of what I’ve discussed here is fantasy. Publishers are already doing some of this, but are they fully leveraging the power of AI? What this does mean is that data is critical, and the role of the marketer must change.

Key takeaways:

• Use AI to rethink subscriber marketing end-to-end — optimize spend, personalize journeys and price dynamically across acquisition and renewal.
• Make data the foundation — collect early, and collect more
• Experiment and challenge the default of “more marketing, lower prices.”

Imtiaz Patel is a media executive who has led growth, digital innovation and revenue strategy across major news organizations. As chief consumer officer at Gannett, he oversaw consumer revenue and marketing for USA TODAY and 200+ local publications. As CEO of The Baltimore Banner, he built a digital-first newsroom from scratch, reaching 60K subscribers and $10M in year-one revenue. He previously held leadership roles at Dow Jones and has advised publishers like The Philadelphia Inquirer. Based in New York, Imtiaz is passionate about the arts, food and Liverpool FC. He can be reached at imtiazp99@gmail.com.